France has a unique 2-stage Presidential electoral process. All candidates from all political parties participate in the first stage, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the second stage. In 2002, this system resulted in a second-stage meeting between the popular, centrist candidate (Jacque Chirac) and the far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, with the the large Socialist Party unrepresented.
This year a similar possibility exists. Although the two main candidates in the Presidential election have been the socialist Segolene Royal and the center-right Nicolas Sarkozy, a recent poll has another centrist candidate, Francois Bayrou, within striking distance of both of them: Sarkozy 27%, Royal 25.5%, Bayrou 23%. Because a candidate has to obtain the signatures of 500 elected representatives in order to be on the ballot, a condition that Le Pen has not yet met, the possibility exists that he will not be a candidate in the first round. In that case, the first round polling is: Sarkozy 30%, Royal 26.5%, Bayrou 25%.
The poll also asked voters for their preference between Sarkozy and Royal in the second round. Here, Sarkozy is favored 52% to 48%, down from a 10-point lead three weeks ago. Two other interesting results from the poll: When asked who they thought would win the election, without regard to their own preference, those polled strongly believed it would be Sarkozy (57% as against 18% for Royal and 11 % for Bayrou). But when asked who they wished to see elected among the four candidates, Royal prevailed (30% as against 28% for Sarkozy, 21% for Bayrou, and 7% for Le Pen — this even though Sarkozy leads in both the first round and second round polling.