That’s Hillary Clinton’s percentage in the new Rasmussen poll in New Hampshire. Her lead over Barack Obama is 10 percent and her lead over John Edwards is 19%. But what strikes me most about the poll is that thirty-four percent figure. If I were Ms. Clinton, I’d be worried about what happens when the number of Democratic contenders is reduced to, say, two. In that scenario, how likely is it that voters now supporting candidates other than Ms. Clinton will shift their preference to her, as opposed to the other remaining Democratic candidate? My hunch is that voters supporting candidates other than Ms. Clinton are motivated, at least in significant part, by a desire to see someone other than Ms. Clinton get the nomination. I suspect that as candidates start dropping away, most voters who supported those candidates will be looking for a reason to support someone other than Ms. Clinton.
Doing the math, if Mr. Obama is the remaining challenger, and assuming he keeps his 24% of the vote, and further assuming that Ms. Clinton were to pick up a full third of the votes of other candidates, it still doesn’t get her to 50%.
The Democratic nominating process may become more interesting after Iowa and New Hampshire.
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