As a lapsed Iowan, the results of the Iowa Caucuses last evening did not surprise me. Iowans tend to have a populist streak, which affected both races.
On the Republican side, I always figured that Mitt Romney would have trouble in Iowa. Not many Iowans can feel real kinship with an investment fund manager, specially one as preppy and squeaky clean as Mitt Romney. On the other hand, Mike Huckabee’s easy, folksy personality – combined with his economic populism and his hard right conservative social values – were an easy sell in Iowa. Romney’s difficulties in Iowa may follow him to other states, but Huckabee’s Iowa assets may not be so transferable.
On the Democratic side, I expected that Barrack Obama would win, but not by the margin he did. John Edwards, I suspect, hit the high point of his campaign in Iowa, owing again to Iowan’s populist streak and the time and effort Edwards focused on the state. I can’t see Edwards pulling more than 30% in any other state. As for Hillary Clinton, I see trouble in her future. Although by nature Iowans are not fertile ground for her, her showing – third place and 29% — among a large, interested, committed group of Democrats and Independents, does not bode well for her. She can point to her “experience” all she wants, but that is not going to sell her in the face of Obama’s charisma, optimism, and energy.
Hillary’s problem was evidenced by the contrast between her speech and Obama’s speech last evening. Her speech as all about “I”:
I have set big goals for our country. I want to rebuild a strong and prosperous middle class. And to me, that is the most important job the next president will have here at home, because if we don’t begin to pay attention to the people who do the work, and raise the families, and make this country great, we will not recognize America in a few years.
And I want to make it absolutely clear I intend to restore America’s leadership and our moral authority in the world. And we’re going to tackle all of the problems that are going to be inherited because of the current administration, including ending the war in Iraq, and bringing our troops home, and then giving them the support that they need.
And we’re going to reform our government. We’re going to make sure that it is not the government of the few, by the few, and for the few, but it actually works for every American again.
And we’re going to reclaim the future for our children. I have done this work for 35 years. It is the work of my lifetime. I have done — I have been involved in making it possible for young people to have a better education and for people of all ages to have health care, and that transforming work is what we desperately need in our country again. I am so ready for the rest of this campaign, and I am so ready to lead.
In contrast, Obama’s speech was inspiring, a call to joint action, a “you” and a “we” speech. Obama’s speech was as much about the electorate as about himself.
But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.
You have done what the state of New Hampshire can do in five days. You have done what America can do in this new year, 2008.
In lines that stretched around schools and churches, in small towns and in big cities, you came together as Democrats, Republicans and independents, to stand up and say that we are one nation. We are one people. And our time for change has come.
You said the time has come to move beyond the bitterness and pettiness and anger that’s consumed Washington.
To end the political strategy that’s been all about division, and instead make it about addition. To build a coalition for change that stretches through red states and blue states.
Because that’s how we’ll win in November, and that’s how we’ll finally meet the challenges that we face as a nation.
We are choosing hope over fear.
We’re choosing unity over division, and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America.
You said the time has come to tell the lobbyists who think their money and their influence speak louder than our voices that they don’t own this government — we do. And we are here to take it back.
Worst of all, the only part of Hillary’s speech I actually remembered (the rest I pulled off of the internet) was this portion:
You know, I wrote a book some years ago called ”It Takes a Village to Raise a Child,” and in it I have a chapter that I titled ”Every Child Needs a Champion.” Well, I think that the American people need a president who is their champion, and that is what I intend to be.
If I follow the analogy correctly, that makes the American people … children? Who need you as our champion to save us? No thank you.
This difference – as much a difference in character as in outlook – is a problem Ms. Clinton can’t fix through endorsements, contributions, ads, or consultants. Americans aren’t children; they don’t need a champion to take care of them. They want a leader to inspire them to better themselves and their country. Mr. Obama may be able to do that; Ms. Clinton can’t.
Categories: Politics